Gvozdeni zakon finansijskih tržišta: samoispunjavajuća predviđanja i špekulativni usponi i padovi
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21301/EAP.v8i4.11Ključne reči:
špekulacije, špekulativni balon, samoispunjavajuća predviđanja, insajderi, autsajderi, masovna psihologijaApstrakt
U radu se razmatraju faktori zbog kojih, u odsustvu čvrste regulacije, Gvozdeni zakon finansijskih tržišta ima za rezultat špekulativne uspone i padove koji se javljaju više-manje redovno od 17. veka do danas. Prvi faktor je da su finansijska tržišta samoispunjavajuć sistem. Drugi je ljudska priroda koja se ne menja i zasniva se na egoizmu, materijalizmu, averziji prema gubitku, preteranim nadanjima i strahovima, imitiranju drugih, sklonosti kockanju, potpadanju pod uticaj masovne psihologije itd. Na kraju je izuzetna kratkoća finansijskog pamćenja. Kako bi ekonomske vlasti i/ili pojedinci bili u stanju da na vreme otkriju da je neodrživi uspon na putu, definisali smo zajednička obeležja istorijski zabeleženih špekulativnih epizoda. Faze kroz koje prolazi sistem od neodrživog uspona do neumitnog pada su: prestrojavanje, bum, prekomerno trgovanje ili pregrejavanje, finansijska nevolja i dekreditiranje ili animozitet prema manje likvidnoj aktivi od novca.
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